Forecasting and risk analytics.
A forecast that gives a single number is hiding its own uncertainty. It is usually a guess with the doubt stripped out.
Our founder trained in actuarial science, and we bring the same discipline to company forecasting: we give a range instead, and show the assumptions behind it, so the result can be checked, not just trusted. The conversation then starts from what could move the result, not from a false sense that the future is already known.
What our forecasting work covers
- Cash, revenue, and demand forecasts stated as ranges
- Scenario and sensitivity analysis: what moves the result, and by how much
- Assumption registers a decision-maker can question line by line
- Risk analysis for pricing, credit, stock, and investment decisions
- Forecast models the company owns and can rerun
When companies call us in
A forecast nobody believes
One number, no assumptions, and it is wrong every month. We rebuild it as a range with the drivers written down.
A large, uncertain decision
A new site, a contract, a capital spend. We show the range of outcomes and which assumptions matter most.
A model only one person understands
We document it, test it, and hand it over in a form the team can rerun.
How the engagement runs
- 01Diagnose. We name the decision, and say what is already good enough to act on.
- 02Analyse or build. Analysis, software, or both. We write down time and scope before starting.
- 03Ship. A read people can use, or a system the company can run.
- 04Review. We sit with the people who decide, then agree what to watch next.
See the full process, an example of the work, or who does it.
Common questions
Do you provide actuarial sign-off?
No. We do not provide statutory actuarial sign-off. We apply actuarial and statistical methods to company forecasting and decision analysis.
Why a range instead of one number?
A single number looks certain but hides the doubt. A range with the assumptions listed is honest, and a decision-maker can ask how it was built.
How much does it cost?
We quote after a short diagnostic conversation, not from a price list, because the right shape of the work depends on what is actually broken. Time, scope, and stop conditions are written down before the work starts. There is no quote, and no charge, for the first conversation.
What do I need to send to get started?
A few sentences on the situation, by email. You do not need a brief or a clean dataset. We start from the extracts and systems the company already has.
Related services
If your numbers do not add up, a report is still built by hand, or your team has outgrown its tools, get in touch.
A few sentences on the situation are enough. We reply from the same address you see here.